Market Outlook
February 22, 2019
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Market Cues
BSE Sensex
0.4
142
35,898
Indian markets are likely to open negative tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
Nifty
0.5
54
10,790
US Stocks moved moderately lower during the trading session on Thursday following
Mid Cap
0.9
123
14,116
the release of a batch of largely disappointing U.S. economic data. Selling pressure
Small Cap
1.1
142
13,414
was relatively subdued, however, limiting the downside for the major averages. The
Bankex
0.2
70
30,223
Dow ended modestly lower at 25,851 whereas the Nasdaq was slightly negative at
7,460.
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
U.K. stocks finished negative on Thursday as weak earnings updates and mixed PMI
Dow Jones
(0.4)
(104)
25,851
data offset investor optimism over progress in talks between the U.S. and China. The
Nasdaq
(0.4)
(29)
7,460
FTSE 100 was down by 0.8% to 7,167.
FTSE
(0.8)
(61)
7,167
On domestic front, rose for a second straight session on Thursday, with auto,
Nikkei
0.2
33
21,432
banking, pharma and metal stocks rallying amid buying by foreign and domestic
Hang Seng
0.4
116
28,514
institutional investors. During the trading session
t
he BSE Sensex ended higher by
Shanghai Com
(0.3)
(9)
2,752
0.4% to 35,898.
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
News Analysis
1,570
1,183
Advances
India needs to boost economic growth as inflation outlook remains low: RBI
983
540
Declines
146
338
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Unchanged
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Volumes (` Cr)
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
BSE
2,159
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
NSE
28,448
Refer Pg5 onwards
Top Picks
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
FII
(895
822
(199)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
606
867
43.1
*MFs
(518)
5,097
6,274
ICICI Bank
Financials
Buy
350
416
18.7
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
206
330
59.9
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Bata India
Others
Accumulate
1,285
1,479
15.1
SUZLON
4
21.4
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
323
486
50.6
RNAM
187
20.0
More Top Picks on Pg4
CORPBANK
30
19.0
Key Upcoming Events
JPASSOCIAT
6
14.1
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
ReadingExpectations
RELCAPITAL
161
11.1
Feb 16, 2019
TU Central Bank Inflation Report
Feb 17, 2019
TH Exports YoY
0.06
--
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Feb 17, 2019
TH Exports
$22380m
--
SHANKARA
444
-3.8
Feb 20, 2019
TH Imports YoY
0.24
--
MANPASAND
74
-3.3
Feb 20, 2019
TH Imports
$21776m
--
More Events on Pg7
PTC
80
-2.7
MINDAIND
317
-2.7
IEX
159
-2.6
As on Feb 21, 2019
Market Outlook
February 22, 2019
News Analysis
India needs to boost economic growth as inflation outlook
remains low: RBI
India needs to take steps to boost economic growth as the inflation outlook
remains low, the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee (MPC) said in
minutes released on Thursday. Most of the six-member MPC were in favour of
spurring growth in Asia's third largest economy amid a soft inflation outlook on a
sustained fall in food prices, the minutes of the February monetary policy meeting
showed. The MPC delivered a surprise repo rate cut in a 4-2 split vote this month
while members unanimously agreed to move the policy stance to 'neutral' from
'calibrated tightening'.
The MPC meeting was the first for central bank Governor Shaktikanta Das after
the abrupt exit by his predecessor, Urjit Patel. Patel was known for his hawkish
stance on interest rates, but Das downplayed inflation concerns and hinted at
more rate cuts. "The overall food outlook remains benign and the headline
inflation one-year ahead is projected to remain below the target level of
4
percent," Das said in the minutes. "The neutral stance will provide flexibility and
room to address challenges to sustained growth of the Indian economy over the
coming months, as long as the inflation outlook remains benign."
Softer interest rates will be good news for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's
government which wants to boost lending and lift growth ahead of elections to be
held by May. Given that the last three interest rate moves out of five were split
since the panel came into effect in October 2016, the probability of a divided MPC
going ahead has gone up, analysts saidThe MPC also noted the global
uncertainties over trade frictions, Brexit and oil prices could add to growth
headwinds back home even as most central banks have moved firmly away from
last year's tightening moves.
Economic and Political News
Parliamentary panel summons top bosses of Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram
First tranche of PM-Kisan scheme likely to cover 24 million farmers
EPFO hikes interest rate to 8.65%, move to benefit 170 mn subscribers
India will stop flow of 'eastern' river waters to Pakistan, says Gadkari
Corporate News
Reliance Capital invites Nippon Life to buy 43% stake in its MF business
Some shareholders question Jet revival plan, criticise lack of transparency
Telecom panel decision on Bharti Airtel, Vodafone, Idea penalty deferred
Tech Mahindra to buyback Rs 1,956 crore worth shares at Rs 950 apiece
Ashoka Buildcon wins Rs 1,382-crore contract from NHAI in Karnataka
Market Outlook
February 22, 2019
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
Blue Star
5,834
606
867
43.1
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability
to improve once operating environment turns
around.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
ICICI Bank
2,25,767
350
416
18.7
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost,
which would help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
2,547
323
486
50.6
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,542
56
95
70.4
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,598
341
606
77.7
boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades
at an inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
2,05,318
6,797
10,820
59.2
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,269
236
424
80.0
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,589
712
1,000
40.4
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
18,007
82
151
84.6
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
1,736
206
330
59.9
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
5,75,422
2,115
2,500
18.2
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise
and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Market Outlook
February 22, 2019
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect strong PAT growth on back of
healthy growth in automobile segment (on back
of new launches and facelifts in some of the
M&M
78,738
633
1,050
65.8
model ) and strong growth in Tractors segment
coupled by its strong brand recall and
improvement in rural sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of
55.4%. It is a one-stop
Amber Enterprises
2,164
688
1,135
65.0
solutions provider for the major brands in the
RAC industry and currently serves eight out of
the 10 top RAC brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR
of
~16% to
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E
Bata India
16,512
1,285
1,479
15.1
mainly due to new product launches, higher
number of stores addition and focus on
women’s high growth segment and margin
improvement
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by rising
Shriram Transport Finance
23,910
1,054
1,764
67.4
bond yields on the back of stronger pricing
power and an enhancing ROE by 750bps over
FY18-20E, supported by decline in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27% CAGR
over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong steel
demand and capacity addition. On the bottom
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
15,037
155
327
110.5
line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to profit by
FY19 on back of strong operating margin
improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
1,590
1,088
1,287
18.3
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase its
share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the
Indian Pharmaceutical companies, is well
placed to face the challenging generic markets,
given its focus on achieving growth through
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
42,803
731
890
21.8
productivity. Aurobindo will report net revenue
& net profit CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp.
during FY2018-20E. Valuations are cheap V/s
its peers and own fair multiples of 17-18x.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy CAGR
of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers level ROA
RBL Bank
23,781
558
690
23.6
(1.2% FY18) to expand led by margin
expansion and lower credit cost.
TTK Prestige has emerged as one of the leading
brands in kitchen appliances in India after its
successful transformation from a single product
TTK Prestige
9,123
7,830
8,200
4.7
company to offering an entire gamut of home
and kitchen appliances. We are expecting a
CAGR of 18% in revenue and 25% in PAT over
FY2018-20.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
February 22, 2019
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect Inox Wind to report exponential
growth in top-line and bottom-line over FY19-
20E. The growth would be led by changing
renewable energy industry dynamics in favor of
Inox Winds
1,409
64
120
89.0
wind energy segment viz. changes in auction
regime from Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) to reverse
auction regime and Government’s guidance for
10GW auction in FY19 and FY20 each.
Considering the strong CV demand due to
change in BS-VI emission norms (will trigger
pre-buying activities), pick up in construction
Ashok Leyland
23,807
81
156
92.4
activities and no significant impact on industry
due to recent axle load norms, we recommend
BUY on Ashok Leyland at current valuations.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,648
274
360
31.3
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
1,876
1,257
2,178
73.3
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,745
2,202
2,500
13.6
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
1,584
129
256
98.1
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
25,425
127
210
65.1
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Well planned strategy to grow small business loans
and cross-selling would propel fees income. We
Yes Bank
49,726
215
290
34.9
expect YES to grow its advance much higher than
industry and improvement in asset quality to
support profitability.
Market Outlook
February 22, 2019
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported
Estimated
Oct 30, 2018
JN
Housing Starts YoY
% Change
Sep
0.02
(0.01)
Oct 30, 2018
JN
Annualized Housing Starts
% Change
Sep
0.957m
0.950m
Oct 30, 2018
JN
Construction Orders YoY
% Change
Sep
0.01
--
Oct 30, 2018
12:00 AM
ES
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Sep
0.06
--
Oct 30, 2018
12:00 AM
RO
ILO Unemployment Rate
% Change
Sep
0.04
--
Oct 31, 2018
3:15 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate SA
% Change
Sep
0.03
--
Oct 31, 2018
4:30 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate Gross Rate
% Change
Sep
0.04
0.04
Oct 31, 2018
4:30 AM
FI
Trade Balance
% Change
Aug F
-400m
--
Oct 31, 2018
4:30 AM
TU
Economic Confidence
% Change
Oct
71.00
--
Oct 31, 2018
5:20 AM
TU
Trade Balance
% Ratio
Sep
-2.42b
-1.90b
Oct 31, 2018
5:20 AM
TU
Central Bank Inflation Report
%
Oct 31, 2018
5:30 AM
TH
Exports YoY
% Change
Sep
0.06
--
Oct 31, 2018
5:30 AM
TH
Exports
% Change
Sep
$22380m
--
Oct 31, 2018
5:31 AM
TH
Imports YoY
%
Sep
0.24
--
Oct 31, 2018
5:31 AM
TH
Imports
%
Sep
$21776m
--
Oct 31, 2018
5:31 AM
TH
Trade Balance
Thousands
Sep
$604m
--
Oct 31, 2018
6:00 AM
TH
BoP Current Account Balance
% Change
Sep
$753m
$1200m
Oct 31, 2018
0-Jan-00
AU
CPI YoY
% Change
3Q
0.02
0.02
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
February 22, 2019
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
9.0
8.5
9.1
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
8.2
6.9
6.9
8.0
8.1
6.6
7.6
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.2
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.3
7.0
6.3
4.5
6.1
5.0
4.1
5.6
3.9
6.0
4.0
5.0
3.0
1.8
4.0
2.0
1.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
54.0
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.6
52.0
5.0
4.4
4.3
4.2
50.0
3.6
3.7
4.0
3.3
48.0
3.0
46.0
2.0
44.0
1.0
42.0
40.0
-
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
7.00
30.0
6.50
25.0
6.00
20.0
5.50
15.0
5.00
10.0
4.50
5.0
4.00
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 25 Sep, 2018
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
February 22, 2019
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
8.0
(%)
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.5
2.0
0.7
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research As of 25 Sep, 2018
Market Outlook
February 22, 2019
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
87424
11.2
10.4
15.1
Russia
Micex
2352
-5.0
1.3
13.0
India
Nifty
10387
-5.6
-8.5
-0.6
China
Shanghai Composite
2603
-7.7
-9.5
-23.8
South Africa
Top 40
46141
-6.9
-10.1
-12.7
Mexico
Mexbol
42340
-11.2
-15.1
-11.3
Indonesia
LQ45
923
-2.4
-1.2
-8.3
Malaysia
KLCI
1704
-3.6
-4.4
-2.2
Thailand
SET 50
1104
-4.7
-0.5
0.8
USA
Dow Jones
25116
-5.8
-1.2
6.8
UK
FTSE
7085
-5.2
-8.0
-5.9
Japan
Nikkei
21770
-10.8
-3.8
-3.4
Germany
DAX
11448
-7.2
-10.6
-14.8
France
CAC
5093
-7.5
-7.6
-7.6
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 02 Nov, 2018
Market Outlook
February 22, 2019
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
17-08-2018
Top Picks
Ashok Leyland
128
156
Open
10-08-2018
Top Picks
Inox Wind
107
127
Open
30-11-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
7,206
8,200
Open
09-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
6,206
7,500
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
30-08-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
626
690
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
30-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
918
1,007
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
573
1016
Closed(17/08/2018)
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
27-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,170
1,287
Open
18-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,024
1,200
07-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
984
1,100
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
27-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
974
1,071
Open
14-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
868
1,000
07-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
788
870
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
February 22, 2019
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
FundamentalEndurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
February 22, 2019
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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